From all we’ve seen of Microsoft’s Kinect system so far, the technology looks quite impressive. Being able to navigate menus through voice controls and hand motions alone has a Star Trek and Star Wars kind of vibe to it, and it feels like “the future” is almost upon us. Then you add in things like interacting with animals, going through a fitness class with a personal trainer, or learning to dance, and it’s hard not to get excited about the possibilities of this potentially game-changing device. So why has the rumoured $150 price captured so much attention?

First, we need to take a closer look at who Microsoft is targeting with Kinect. Call Of Duty and Halo fanboys? Sorry, this isn’t for you. At least not yet. So you can go back to your headshots and teabagging now. No, based on the games on display at E3, it’s a safe bet to say that Microsoft are trying to get a slice of that lucrative and delicious casual gaming pie that Nintendo (and to a lesser, but ever increasing extent, Apple) are currently enjoying. It certainly is a ripe market, and Microsoft have something that nobody else is doing right now in the form of true motion control, since, as we’re constantly reminded, “You are the controller.”

Based on the tech, and the estimated cost to make it, $150 isn’t necessarily a bad price point to set. The problem here is that if you want the casual market, you have to play the casual game. Joe Consumer, who will likely be the one making the purchasing decision, will see the $150 price tag and balk. The casual gamer doesn’t read reviews, visit Metacritic, or scrutinize how many hours of gameplay a game offers, with and without side quests. No, they simply look at the price, check out the box art, MAYBE ask a clerk about the game, then purchase it. And more often than not, it’s not the full-priced 60 dollar games they’re getting either.

Why has the Wii sold so many units worldwide? Accessibility, tremendous first party offerings, a dearth (some will say too many) of casual titles, and a low price point. Until recently, when the Xbox 360 Arcade (and this might not even be a fair comparison seeing how stripped down the Arcade is) was dropped in price due to the impending arrival of the new slimmer 360, the Wii had been the cheapest console available. Lots of games for the Wii are inexpensive as well. Why do you think there are so many minigame collections out there? Because they sell. They’re cheap, they’re simple, they’re fun. Well, most of them, anyways.

The ironic part is that Kinect could take casual gaming to the next level. But when you look at a $299 console, plus a $150 peripheral, that’s a $450 investment. Best case, you could get an old arcade unit for $150, and Kinect for $150 for a total of $300. This still isn’t insignificant to Joe Consumer, especially when their Wii is doing them just fine. There will likely be bundles available, but I don’t believe we’re hearing anything less than $299 at this point.

Here’s another thing that bugs me about this. This isn’t Microsoft’s M.O. at all. What, they’re only going to start wanting to break even or sell hardware at a profit NOW with Kinect? And since when has Microsoft ever gone with a premium pricing strategy for anything? They’ve always tried stay below, or at the very least, level, with Sony. The Arcade is obviously there to keep up with the Wii. Beyond gaming, let’s look a Mac vs. PC. Apple will sell you on the overall quality of design and the Mac OS X Operating System, and refuses to get into the Netbook market (iPad notwithstanding). Microsoft pimps the lower up front cost of PCs, especially Netbooks. There are examples in the business software world as well, which I won’t bore you with here, where Microsoft goes with the “lower price, good enough” strategy and markets the heck out of itself. Microsoft didn’t get this far by radically changing how they do things, I just can’t see them starting now.

So what if they sell it at a loss? Their usual strategy is get this thing into as many homes as possible, and acquire huge market share. A $150 price point would make this very difficult since you’re really in premium peripheral territory, and once you get into three digits, I think you’re looking at a significant psychological barrier for the average consumer. Do I think Kinect is worth $150? From what I’ve seen, I could make the argument that it will be. But most people can’t, and won’t. This is why I wouldn’t be shocked to see an initial $99 price point when Kinect becomes available. It fits better into Microsoft’s traditional strategy, plus, it’ll give them a huge advantage over the Playstation Move, which isn’t going to be cheap itself.